Priyo Blog

          Clouds Gathering around Copenhagen Summit

                   Engr Khondkar Abdus Saleque

Clouds have started gathering around the Climate Change Summit Conference at Copenhagen 09. The Chances of reaching any agreement for towards legal bindings for reducing Green House Gas Emissions is getting progressively diminished .Major polluters have failed to reach meeting of minds as appeared from the media reports following hurriedly arranged climate change dissuasion at Singapore held after just concluded APEC Summit. This may defeat the main purpose of the UNO brokered high profile conference due to draft protocol for replacing Kyoto Protocol due to become redundant soon.USA and China are not agreeing to any commitment for setting any Emission Reduction target , any legal bindings.

World community especially the worst affected nations of climate changes due to green house gas emissions are expecting great things to happen in  the forth coming Climate change summit. Press release of iea accompanying World Energy Outlook 2009 says,

“The time has come to make hard choices needed to combat climate change and enhance global energy security”. Nobou Tanaka, Executive Director of International Energy Agency at the launch of the new WEO d said, “World Leaders gathering in Copenhagen next month for the UN Climate Summit have a historic opportunity to avert the worst effects of climate change. The World Energy Outlook 2009 seeks to add momentum to their negotiations at this crucial stage by detailing the practical steps needed for a sustainable energy future as part of global energy deal”.

Maldives, Nepal and Bangladesh are three of the worst affected victims of emissions. However the emissions of these countries are insignificant compared to those of industrially developed nations. Still for the uncontrolled emissions of leading Industrial nations these countries are bearing the burnt. There are serious genuine apprehensions that Maldives may cease to exist, Bangladesh may loose majority of its coastal areas, and Nepal may be severely impacted for melting of snow at Himalayas. In order to attract attention of the world community the three governments are moving heaven and hell. Maldives President organised a cabinet meeting under the sea, Nepal Government is doing it at Himalayan Hill station, and Bangladesh Prime Minster is loudly raising the issue at every multi lateral forum she is attending. Millions of people will soon become climate refugees; food security will become extremely vulnerable. Cruel nature may continue to ravage different parts of the country if industrialised countries do not agree to cut emissions effectively.

The Copenhagen Climate Change Conference is to draft a better and more appropriate agreement than Kyoto Protocol for checking and controlling Global Emissions. But these expectations received a big blow at a recent development at APEC Summit at Singapore .Leaders of USA , China and other  major polluters agreed on principal it may not be possible to reach a legally binding agreement to impose carbon emission reduction at Copenhagen summit. UNO Communiqué of the summit also impugned the commitment of reducing green house gas emission. Leaders at the hurriedly convened climate conference at Singapore failed to reach any conclusive agreement on this matter with only less than 4 weeks left for the conference.

What we learned before APEC Summit 2009 that APEC countries including the United States, Japan and China were expected to pledge to keep up their stimulus policies and push for a global trade deal in 2010 to spur a lasting economic recovery. Leaders from the grouping were also expected to provide some momentum for global talks on climate change next month in Copenhagen.

Contray to the expectations APEC countries failed to reach any consensus decision to agree on a legally binding provision for reducing GHG emission in upcoming Copenhagen Climate Change Conference. US President Nobel Laureate for peace Barak Obama came on a surprise visit to Singapore to meet World Leaders attending the APEC Summit. He met Chinese President and Prime Minster of Denmark. Apart from APEC Summit major agenda the leaders of 21 nations APEC also discussed Climate Change matters. Australian PM Kevin Rudd and Prime Minster of Mexico Philip Calderon invited top leaders to a breakfast on the last day of the conference. But the most frustrating news that appeared in the media quoting National Security Advisor of US Government Mike Froman that world must not expect any agreement to be reached on legally bonded reduction of GHG Emission to be included in the would be prepared Copenhagen Protocol..

However, a Chinese Government Communiqué earlier stated that Chinese President was optimistic about positive development of Copenhagen Climate Change Summit. China expressed its eagerness to work with all parties towards this end. But at the same time China reiterated that developed world must bear the responsibility of reducing emissions and provide required technological and financial assistance to combat impacts of climate changes.  US President met South East Asian Country Leaders including PM of Myanmar in a Singapore Hotel. US President expressed his inability to agree to a legally bounded provision for reduction of emission to be included in declaration of Climate Change Conference.

Well this is one side of the story. USA is still one the main culprit of Climate Change a major polluter. US delegation will come under tremendous pressure from the rest of the world especially from LDC countries, countries adversely impacted by climate change. It is now unto the developing and underdeveloped countries to forge unity. China, India and Brazil among developing economies must play positive role as well.

There is encouraging news as well. WEO -2009 demonstrates that containing climate change is possible but will require a profound transformation of energy sector. A 450 Scenario sets out an aggressive timetable of actions needed to limit the long term concentration of green house gases in the atmosphere to 450 parts per million of carbon di oxide equivalent and keep global temperature rise to around 2 Degree Celsius  above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this scenario, fossil fuel demand would need to peak by 2020 an energy related carbon di-oxide emissions to fall to 26.4 gigatonnes in 2030 from 28.8 Gt in 2007.

At the IEA Ministerial meeting, a large majority of Ministers showed their intention to take lead, organise themselves and commit to the challenges to reach the 45 scenario- the energy path to green growth. Only by mitigation in all sectors and regions we can turn the 450 Scenario a reality.

World must rise against global emissions and make USA change its policy or become isolated ,Copenhagen Summit must see agreement for reducing GHG to an agreed limit within a given time frame. There must be provision for legal binding. GHG Emission triggered Climate Change is the worst enemy of human Civilization. Major polluter must take the lead. World community must address the situation in its right perspective. We are already late more delay will take the situation well beyond control.

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