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আগামী বাজেট : কাপড় অনুযায়ী কোট কাটুন

Abu.Ahmed's picture
Submitted by Abu.Ahmed on Wed, 28/03/2012 - 12:03pm

বাংলাদেশ এগোতে গিয়েও এগোতে পারে না। এত দিনে আমাদের অর্থনীতিতে জিডিপির প্রবৃদ্ধির হার ৭-৭.৫ শতাংশে পেঁৗছে যাওয়ার কথা ছিল। কিন্তু সত্য হলো, আজকে প্রবৃদ্ধির হারে খরা লেগেছে। আশঙ্কা হচ্ছে, ২০১১-২০১২ আর্থিক বছরে আমরা গত আর্থিক বছরের প্রবৃদ্ধির হারটাও ধরে রাখতে পারব কি না। প্রবৃদ্ধির হার কমার মূল কারণ হলো অর্থনীতিতে বিনিয়োগ হ্রাস। সরকারি খাতে উন্নয়ন ব্যয় কমে গেছে, বহিঃসূত্র থেকে সরকারের অর্থপ্রাপ্তি না ঘটার কারণে। বিশ্বব্যাংক শুধু পদ্মা ব্রিজ অর্থায়ন থেকেই নিজেকে সরিয়ে নেয়নি, সরকারের বাজেট ব্যয় সমর্থনে অর্থায়নের যেসব প্রতিশ্রুতি দিয়েছিল, ওইগুলো থেকেও পিছুটান দিয়েছে। ভবিষ্যতেও যে বহিঃসূত্র থেকে বাংলাদেশ বড় রকমের কোনো অর্থায়ন পাবে, তা আশা করা যায় না। দ্বিপক্ষীয় ভিত্তিতে আগে যে অর্থ সাহায্য বাংলাদেশ সরকার পেত, সেটাও পাচ্ছে না মূলত এই কারণেই যে বিদেশি সরকারগুলো মনে করে, বাংলাদেশ সরকারের মাধ্যমে ঋণ দিলে সে ঋণ অপচয় হবে, অপব্যবহার হবে, সে ঋণ ব্যয় হবে দুর্নীতির অর্থায়নে। তাই বিদেশি সরকারগুলো এখন যে যৎসামান্য অর্থ সাহায্য বাংলাদেশকে দেয়, সেই সাহায্য আসে বেসরকারি সাহায্য সংস্থা তথা এনজিগুলোর মাধ্যমে।

এনজিওগুলোর প্রাপ্তিতে সরকারের অনুমোদন আসে বটে, তবে সে অর্থের ওপর সরকারের নিয়ন্ত্রণ থাকে না। বাংলাদেশ সরকারকে আগামী বাজেট প্রণয়ন করতে হবে প্রায় শতভাগ নিজেদের সম্পদের ওপর নির্ভর করে। আর এই নিজেদের সম্পদের বড় উৎস দুটো হলো কর ও করবহির্ভূত খাত থেকে সরকারের আয়। সরকার যদি আয় অনুযায়ী ব্যয় করে, তাহলে অর্থনীতিতে কড়া শৃঙ্খলা বজায় থাকবে। তবে সত্য হলো, বিশ্বের অতি নগণ্যসংখ্যক সরকার এই কাজটি করে। অধিকাংশ সরকার ঋণ করে ঘি খেতে চায়। এতে হিতে বিপরীত হয়। তারা যে বড় অঙ্কের ঋণের মধ্যে ডুব দেয়, সে ঋণের বোঝা একদিন জনগণকেই বহন করতে হয়। সে ঋণের বোঝা জনগণ বহন করে দুইভাবে। এক. পরবর্তী বছরগুলোয় বেশি করে ট্যাঙ্ দিয়ে, দুই. সরকারি ঋণের মাধ্যমে অর্থনীতিতে যে মূল্যস্ফীতি সৃষ্টি হয়, সে মূল্যস্ফীতির কারণে জনগণ প্রকৃত আয় হারিয়ে ফেলে।

এক অর্থে সরকারি ঋণের সঙ্গে অর্থনীতি যদি আনুপাতিক হারে না বাড়ে, তাহলে গড়পড়তা ওই দেশের লোক দরিদ্র হতে বাধ্য। তাই সরকারি ঋণ শুধু সমৃদ্ধি আনে না, দারিদ্র্যও আনে। অনেকটা নির্ভর করছে সরকার কোন সূত্র থেকে কত টাকা ঋণ করছে এবং ঋণের অর্থ কোথায়, কিভাবে ব্যয় করছে। ঋণ করে ঘি খেতে গিয়ে অনেক দেশের সরকার গোটা দেশকেই বিপদে ফেলে। সাম্প্রতিক উদাহরণ হলো ইউরোপের গ্রিস। গ্রিস সরকার ঋণ করতে করতে ঋণ পরিশোধের ক্ষমতাই হারিয়ে ফেলেছিল। এক ঋণ পরিশোধ করার জন্য অন্য ঋণ করছিল। মূল্যস্ফীতি কেবল বেড়েই চলছিল। শেষ পর্যন্ত বাঁচার জন্য ইউরোপীয় ইউনিয়নের শরণাপন্ন হলো। ইউরোপীয় ইউনিয়নের বড় দুটি সদস্য দেশ ফ্রান্স ও জার্মানি গ্রিসকে বাঁচাতে এলো বটে, তবে অনেক শর্ত দিয়ে। সেসব শর্ত পালন করতে গিয়ে গ্রিসের নির্বাচিত সরকারকে ক্ষমতা ছাড়তে হয়েছে। আর গ্রিসের জনগণ আগের তুলনায় নিজেদের দরিদ্র ভাবতে বাধ্য হচ্ছে। কখন সরকারগুলো ঋণ করতে ভালোবাসে? যখন অতি সস্তায় ঋণ পাওয়া যায়। সস্তায় ও সহজে ঋণ পেলে রাজনৈতিক সরকারগুলো তখন জনগণকে প্রতিশ্রুতির বন্যায় ভাসাতে চায়। কিন্তু আসল কষ্টটা আসে যখন ঋণ ফেরত দেওয়ার সময় হয়। তখন রাষ্ট্রে হয়তো যে সরকার ঋণ করে গেছে সে সরকার আর ক্ষমতায় থাকে না, কিন্তু পরে যেসব সরকার আসে সেসব সরকারকে বোঝা টানতে হয়। বোঝা টানতে গিয়ে কাউকেই সন্তুষ্ট করা যায় না। শেষ পর্যন্ত সমাজে এক ধরনের অস্থিরতা সৃষ্টি হয়। রাজনৈতিক সরকারগুলোর একটা খেয়াল থাকে যে তাদের সময়টা ভালো গেলেই হলো। পরের কথা পরে দেখা যাবে। আজকে যে বিশ্বব্যাংকসহ আন্তর্জাতিক ঋণদান সংস্থাগুলো ঋণের প্রবাহ তথাকথিত সফট লোন বিক্রয় করা কমিয়ে দিয়েছে, তাতে অনেক দেশের জন্য উপকারই হয়েছে।

আফ্রিকার দেশগুলো যত দিন ফরেন এইডের ওপর নির্ভরশীল ছিল, তত দিন তাদের প্রবৃদ্ধির হার কম ছিল। এখন তারা নিজের পায়ে দাঁড়াতে চাচ্ছে এবং ভালো প্রবৃদ্ধিও অর্জন করছে। বাংলাদেশ সরকার যদি আয় অনুযায়ী ব্যয় করে, তাহলে আগামী বাজেটের আকার অপেক্ষাকৃত ছোট হবে। আর বিদেশি সাহায্য ছাড়াই যদি বাজেটকে বড় করতে চায়, তাহলে অভ্যন্তরীণ উৎস থেকে বিশাল ঋণ নিয়ে সেটা করা যেতে পারে। কিন্তু সে বিশাল ঋণের মূল্য কত? সে মূল্য ভবিষ্যতে কে বহন করবে? সরকার যখন বড় ঋণচক্রের মধ্যে পড়ে যায়, তখন অর্থনীতিতে ব্যক্তি খাত কম মূল্যে ঋণ পায় না। অন্যদিকে সেই ঋণচক্র শুধুই মূল্যস্ফীতি সৃষ্টি করে। একপর্যায়ে ঋণকে monetized করতে হয়, তখন অর্থনৈতিক শৃঙ্খলা ভেঙে পড়ে। এর ফল হবে অর্থনীতি অনেক দিনের জন্য কাঙ্ক্ষিত বিনিয়োগ থেকে বঞ্চিত থাকবে।

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